OH Canada

Game Changers: 21 Days To Election Day

Sometimes, it is better to be quiet until you have something to say. Over the past three weeks, I have found this to be true. It is hard to describe a fast moving train. Remarkable is the word. President Trump has single-handedly severed one of my most beloved relationships and long a model of hope for the world in disarray, while the “Harvard, Oxford, global investment community, climate activists, and immigration evangelists”— namely, the champions of liberalism have outfoxed the fox and effortlessly ushered in their perfectly designed candidate in a time of uber populism running him on nothing more ironic than “nationalism”. I mean, wow.

As we watched Carney become the 24th Prime Minister of Canada on March 14th, 2025, with almost 90% of the Liberal vote, he swiftly took the helm without fanfare and flew to France and Britain, the original feudal states of Canadian migration 400 years ago. He met with Macron, prayed at Notre Dame, met with Sir Keir and Britain’s King Charles, and denounced the aggression of President Trump at every turn while firmly establishing himself on the world stage. He called an election within the week, capitalizing on the momentum as his subjects/voters cheered and ginned up the mood when, at Trump, they jeered. Oblivious or unfettered, Trump continued to double down on his mad-cap threats and imply an invasion, swelling Canadian nationalism to new heights while sinking markets and throwing around tariffs at whim. It was the boogeyman the Liberals needed. Carney’s entire campaign was forged on standing up to Trump.

Yesterday, Ipsos polling reported: “Mark Carney continues to gain momentum in week two of election campaigning (46%, +2), opening a double-digit lead over Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives (34%, -4 pts) among decided voters. This level of national support firmly places the Liberals in majority-government territory.” Wow.

The margin shrinks to a 5-point lead when polling all Canadians: A three-day rolling sample by Nanos Research ending April 6th has the Liberals at 43 per cent over the Conservatives, who are at 38 per cent nationally. The Liberals are also on track to win the popular vote, normally Conservative territory, as their usual upper hand in ridings due to Quebec and Eastern Canada.

It is like Canadians have amnesia. The despised Liberals who have been in power for a decade have moved from a 25-point loss to a chance at a majority win. Hard to believe that it all began when Trudeau resigned on January 6th shortly after Trump began his barrage of threats, first calling Trudeau “governor” and Canada as “the 51st state”. Could Carney have telegraphed a better setup? Was the Freeland bit of Shakespeare scripted? Was this by design? The turnaround is staggering.

I woke up today and rewrote this newsletter. At midnight, I found little reason to see Poilievre breaking through outside his decided voters, but I had heard inklings of a new policy on capital gains that was beginning to bubble up. You can only understand it in the context of being Canadian with enough people over 50 around you. Older Canadians are big savers. In the ‘70s and ‘80s, retirement funds were big. Like an American IRA, you could defer tax by placing $13,000 a year into a Registered Retirement Savings Plan (RRSP). Today, you can place up to $32,490 into an RRSP, plus any unused contribution room from previous years, which can really add up with compound interest over time. FYI, it is around $7,000 in the US for Roth or Traditional IRAs if you are under 50, and Americans can contribute up to $23,500 to a traditional 401(k) through their employer.

The financial markets have been booming for over 50 years, even with a 20% dip in the past few days. Many older Canadians have deep savings that will be deeply taxed when they remove those funds, and they are forced to remove a certain amount in older age. For the savers who played by the rules, worked hard, and saved, now watch our ATM generation of debt; it gauls them. For the entrepreneurs in Canada and the UK, who have to go to Silicon Valley to grow a unicorn, being short on venture capital gauls them. Well, Poilievre has announced a brilliant bit of policy, the “Reinvestment Tax Cut”, that may win him a comeback. I quote the HUB conservative newsroom below, who explain it best:

Conservative proposed capital gains tax rollover could spur $12.5 billion in investment

“Poilievre's proposed capital gains tax deferral could offer a timely remedy for Canada's sagging productivity and capital flight. By allowing reinvested proceeds to avoid immediate taxation until 2026, the “Reinvestment Tax Cut” aims to loosen the grip of the lock-in effect and redirect capital into domestic business assets. Estimated gains—$12.4 billion in investment, $90 billion in GDP, and 280,000 jobs—suggest a significant upside. Though politically charged, the policy merits serious consideration, regardless of electoral outcomes.” I have to say, it is real brilliance.

It is a shame and a real loss for Canadians, who originally wanted a serious change in policy after a decade of Team Trudeau’s focus on pumping the climate renewable transition, increased immigration, and increased social services and reconciliation rather than oil and gas, that there has been so little policy debate inside the Trump hate vaccum. Most people see the merit in climate transition, but Trudeau managed to sink any Canadian hope in the process. Hybrid energy strategies will make Canada more sovereign and safer. Oil in the ground feels somewhat un-Canadian.

Canadians had hoped a Conservative influence this election would bring serious policy change as Canadians felt poorer and angrier. Here is where the conversation was headed before Trump paved the way for Carney.

1. Limit unskilled immigration that usurped an immigration model that was once the envy of the world. Under Carney, they are likely to see more of the same as he added Mark Wiseman, cofounder of the Century Initiative, a controversial lobbying group that advocates for increasing the Canadian population to 100 million by 2100, to his council of advisors on Canada-U.S. relations within his first week as PM.

2. Rebalance the focus on renewables to capitalize on a natural abundance and energy-rich advantage that has been struggling to see the light of day for over a decade under Trudeau’s climate transition-only focus. Open up the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin (WCSB), which spans parts of British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba, with oil sands in northeastern Alberta and offshore production in Newfoundland and Labrador.

3. Increase mining from mineral resource regions such as those located in the far north region of Ontario, about 540km northeast of Thunder Bay and 1,000km north of Toronto, and in Newfoundland, Saskatchewan, and more.

Yet, rather than a policy election, Canadian vitriol and anger at America rose to mirror the vitriol and threats to Canadian sovereignty spewed by Trump. The result? Canadians have decided to place all of their trust in the returning chosen son (Carney) instead of the previously famous chosen son based on lineage (Trudeau). One could deduce that Canadian voters love a “chosen Liberal son”. Let’s hope a meritocratic one fares better.

Carney’s run has been a master class on a tight, messaged campaign. He put his “elbows up” (a Canadian hockey term), donned Oilers jerseys, and dialed another Canadian in America, Mike Meyers, to create great social media content while keeping a call with President Trump at bay. Meanwhile, his conservative opponent, Pierre Poilievre, fell almost silent for a few weeks, his team scrambling for messaging.

The broadsheet for Liberalism, The Economist, is forecasting Carney with an 83% chance of winning. The Liberal election machine, run heavily out of Eurasia Group by Gerald Butts in New York and likely close to Brookfield and renewables investors like Michael Bloomberg (who was first to congratulate Carney on social media), is well-oiled and “Winning”, even if the oil under their candidate stays in the ground.

This brings me to questions. What will happen to Canada after the Trump boogeyman disappears? Will Canada get wealthier and more resilient under Carney, or will it simply triple in size with low-skilled immigration, costly social services, and the hope of a renewable industry explosion to pay for it all? That could work, but it is a big pipe dream of the global giants, namely those who hang out in Davos. (Program note: I went to Davos two weeks ago to ski, and there is no cabal. The locals looked dumbfounded when I explained the conspiracy.) But under Carney, Canada becomes the experiment. I do like experiments so long as real minds are the helm. The hope is that the collective effort of the provinces coming together under Carney for a battle-ready government against US tariffs will bring new prosperity to Canada. To make it work, will Carney get rid of the old guard and bring in a much heavier-hitting team of experts, some of us from the US and industry, unknowns to him and the Liberals, or is it simply team Trudeau redux as we see right now? Because Team Trudeau sort of failed Canadians. There is a valuable OpEd in today’s Globe and Mail on how the Liberals have squandered Canada’s natural resources for over a decade, leaving Canadians poor and a vassal state. Take a read: Canada now has big dreams to build big things. But can it?

Over the past three weeks, everyone around me began to fold in. “Carney was a great teammate on Harvard hockey team”, “Carney is a fine Harvard alum”, Carney is the stable hand, “Carney has strong links to Britain, and this will be advantageous to the UK”, and “Trump is an idiot/tyrant/invading/sinking global economy”, “what other choice is there. It is Carney?” Many journalists I follow in Canada, except for a few conservative stalwarts, softened on Carney. Few outside of Brian Lilley and Lorrie Goldstein (both at the Toronto Sun and determined pundits) seem to be asking hard questions.

As of late, there have been cracks in Carney’s veneer. Questions about his investments continue to dog him. Admitting he does not buy groceries was tone deaf. Questions about his offshore finances and his companies’ offshore holdings in the Turks and Caicos and Bermuda challenge him. CTV did ask if he felt it was ethical for Brookfield and other companies to use tax havens to avoid paying taxes. Carney did not directly answer the questions of ethics but reiterated that he was no longer at Brookfield and that the company followed the rules. NDP leader Jagmeet Singh, who is leading a party that is collapsing in the polls, seized on the opportunity to point out that scrutiny of public records allowed Carney’s Brookfield to avoid paying more than $5.3 billion in taxes during Carney’s tenure. As for fellow global leaders, Jim Balsillie, who started Canadian darling, Blackberry RIM, and has been an advocate for Canada to shore up its own digital backbone and data hold, is asking hard questions and dubious of Carney’s policies in yesterday’s Globe and Mail: He declares, Mark Carney will not make Canada more prosperous. As one of Canada’s great digital success stories, his opinion has weight.

Meanwhile, Poilievre is packing major rallies, and his messaging has become tighter, focusing on issues like the housing crisis, cost of living concerns, and relatively weak economic growth. He's been rolling out such measures as an income tax cut, a TFSA top-up, and a tough-on-crime agenda. Yet, Carney continues to gain ground. The capital-gains-relief-turned-investment vehicle for Canadian businesses could be a game changer if it gets traction.

Carney is a reasonable, highly educated, skilled, and experienced business leader, giving the Liberal party a remarkable comeback with a Canadian election a mere 21 days away. But he should not be off limits for hard questions. That will make him a better leader and deliver Canadians someone accountable to them.

Two weeks ago, CBC’s lead political journalist Rosie Barton (long believed and lamented by most Canadians to be a Trudeau die-hard) was crucified on social media and by pundits for asking a question about Carney’s investments. The tides had turned. The momentum was singular. Speaking against this Carney sweep feels intimidating and even risky. Asking questions is suddenly unfavourable, unsavoury. Carney now famously chided Barton by suggesting she “look from within” for daring to ask a reasonable and necessary question of someone about to waltz into being leader of a G7 nation with the largest land mass after Russia. Anything but cheerleading seems self-sabotaging. The response seems to be, how can we question the chosen son when Trump is attacking the country?

For Poilievre and his Conservative party—how utterly annoying that the Liberal party that sunk Canada into risk of global irrelevance, who added carbon taxes that added 17.6 cents per litre (or about 6.9 cents per US gallon) to people’s gas bill, invoked the Emergencies Act against the trucker protests and had a leader who hid from speaking to them directly, and that fueled mass immigration without planning for adequate housing and hosptial care, thus leaving longtime Canadian grandparents in gurneys for weeks in emergency rooms without a bed or proper staff… is now winning. Add to this a skeletal military hardly able to reach the 2% NATO target with an unassailable defense reliance on America. All the while, billions of oil, gas, cobalt, hydrogen, and more that could make Canada as rich as Norway or Saudi Arabia lay dormant underground, mired in layers of regulation and government inefficiency. Yet, Trump delivered a pitch-perfect terrain for the rise of a prodigal son.

Tariffs have become a gift to Carney. Voters love that Carney is calling out Trump more than France’s President Macron, the UK’s Prime Minister Starmer, Mexico’s President Sheinbaum, and the EU’s cabal. Carney has become David versus Goliath on the global map at this moment, and everyone wants to channel their frustration with Trump. Carney has become the poster boy for the Western Liberal elite who have long run the world and is the investor promise as the US market becomes less global.

I know this is long, so I will leave you with a few questions:

How does Canada aligning with the EU (a clunky, layered, slow-growing economy) help Canada over the next decade? Doesn’t that weigh it down? The UK seems like a better match. Who is Canada best served in alignment? Do Trump and Carney have the same Wall Street investors? (Global investors exposed financially in the energy transition who are deeply invested in renewables or those will will make fortunes building out housing, the defense industry, staffing and expanding Uber Eats, grocery delivery, digital surveillance, and tiny apartments in net-zero, driverless car cities?) Why did Trump say it will be easier to deal with a Liberal? Watch here. Will Carney open up mining, oil, and gas to lift Canada’s GDP and fund its growth rather than take on debt? Will he adopt Poilievre’s capital gains tax relief to fund Canadian business? As a voter, that is what I would want to know.

Remember, there are many ways to own Canada. Be wary. Trump’s threats may be louder and more egregious, but others arrive quietly at night. Set up your foreign agent registry. Don’t be too distracted by the vitriol from Trump and the chest-thumping nationalism of politicians looking to win during an election. Remember to press for the policy changes you wanted three months ago. The world is changing rapidly, but you still have the right to ask hard questions and improve your opportunity to grow wealth while remaining sovereign.